A decade after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that divided the nation and caused turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the political, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in academia but scarcely any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unification or the existing arrangement. Both authors two articles that seek neutrality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and societal data, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass identity markers, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the notion that there may exist valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they favour unity but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government should establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified arguments, he stated. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will eventually be defeated but each side has got important lessons to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
