Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action
The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: optimistic declarations are issued from different nations. Significant resources is allocated on restraining specific proposals. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from Russian territory, a ability enabled by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been scrambled to intercept incoming cruise missiles roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: multiple launches fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably supplied through allied countries. Every launch shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: possibly the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from devastation and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a heavy machine gun fired at a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – most likely Western-made equipment. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its objective.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: seven people killed, devastation and utility failures in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a need that European nations are clearly incapable to fill in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The detailed framework from American leadership generated strong feelings, debate and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from American administration follows the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This trend will, certainly, persist.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration operates on a principle well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House assumes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to surrender the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does minimal to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from assuming that the current condition will not shift further in its advantage in the near future.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing civilians and areas but averting a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its favour.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not move to homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to eliminate the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new proposals based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate specific hesitation to modify developments, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.
